2017-18 Pittsburgh Penguins – Defensemen

We are now into the 2nd round of the 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs so it seemed like a good time to continue our look back at the performance of the Pittsburgh Penguins during the 2017-18 NHL season. Last time I examined the goaltending so today we move on to defense.

We are going to examine the player’s performance compared to the rest of the league, compared to his teammates, and compared to his own past performance. The data used is from 5-on-5 situations based on raw data from Corsica.hockey.

 

Methodology

Looking at the skaters is more complicated because we have more factors to consider when trying to get an overall picture of their performance. You need to not only look at individual production but also the on-ice team stats to get an idea of what kind of contribution he makes to the team’s performance when he is on the ice. You also need to consider both the ability to score goals and preventing the opponent from doing so as well as generating shot attempts and limiting the chances the opponent can create. And lastly you need some context about what type of role the player is used in on his team.

There were 306 entries listed as D that played one or more games this season. Of those there were 168 who played 750 or more 5-on-5 minutes, but in order to fill enough buckets to compare to a full lineup we are going to go with the 212 D who skated 500 or more 5-on-5 minutes this year.

The individual performance we are looking at is primary points and shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time, the point and shot shares (individual divided by on-ice), and the percentage of shot attempts which reach the net. The on-ice team offensive production we have goals for and shot attempts for per 60, Fenwick shooting percent, and the percentage of shot attempts which reach the opponent’s net. The on-ice defensive performance is goals against and shots against, Corsi save percent, and the percentage of shot attempts they allowed to reach their own net. Then we have the differential values of GF%, CF%, and PDO. Lastly for context we include percent of team’s time on ice, quality of competition, and percentage of zone starts.

In order to compare to their teammates we look at where they rank amongst the 8 D who were regularly used this season. In order to compare their performance to the rest of the league we created HOAGIE charts which break the D down in buckets of 31 entries which allows us to differentiate between the performance expectations of #1 through #7 D. In order to compare to their own average performance we are also looking at how their numbers this year stack up against that from the past three seasons 2014-17.

 

Evaluations

Offensively the Penguins as a team in 5-on-5 situations averaged 2.48 GF60, 60.4 CF60, 5.4 FSh%, and 56.3 %SF. Defensively the Penguins as a team in 5-on-5 situations averaged 2.68 GA60, 29.9 SA60, 95.1 CSv%, and 54.1 %SA.

They had more shot attempts than they had in the prior three seasons with a high percentage of attempts reaching the net, however they scored fewer goals with a lower shooting percent. They allowed more shots against than they had in prior seasons but allowed a lower percentage of attempts through to reach the net, but their gave up far more goals against with a worse save percent. Overall their possession got even better this year, but they got massively outscored by their opposition.

There were 10 different D who suited up to play in the NHL this season, although only 8 of them played 500 or more 5-on-5 minutes throughout the year.

 

Kris Letang – 38.2 TOI%, 0.29 1P60, 14.0 C60, 2.25 GF60, 63.4 CF60, 3.17 GA60, 28.4 SA60

Letang skated the highest minutes on the team while him and his partner faced the toughest competition, although he did still have an above average O-zone tilt. He had the best offensive possession and was one of the best at preventing the opponent’s shots. However he was one of the worst at scoring, both individual points and on-ice goals for, and allowed more goals against than anybody else.

Compared to the rest of the D in the league who played 500 or more 5-on-5 minutes this year he skated some of the toughest minutes and still managed to post exceptional possession numbers. However he was extraordinarily lacking where it counts on the scoreboard and he was one of the worst defenders in the entire league while not contributing much offensively either.

His possession numbers are all improved from his past performance but his scoring was down and he allowed significantly more goals against than he is accustomed to. I don’t have a good excuse either, he faced the same level of competition and only slightly less sheltered zone starts. If you got points for outshooting your opponents he would have been an all-star, but where it counts on the scoreboard he just had a terrible year.

 

Brian Dumoulin – 35.4 TOI%, 0.49 1P60, 8.5 C60, 2.36 GF60, 62.3 CF60, 2.93 GA60, 29.3 SA60

Dumoulin had the second highest time on ice while facing off against the toughest competition, although he did have amongst the most sheltered O-zone tilts. Individually he took fewer shot attempts than anybody else but was on the ice for some of the highest. He was below average in both goals for and against, but slightly above average in individual points as well as being slightly above average in preventing opponent’s shots.

Compared to the rest of the league he only skated 2nd pairing minutes but against some of the toughest competition, although with quite sheltered zone starts. His on-ice possession was exceptional but his individual shot attempts were amongst the lowest in the league. His offensive scoring was actually fairly decent for somebody who ostensibly skated 2nd pairing minutes (even though he was on the top pair of the Pens), but defensively it was atrocious.

His possession numbers were up this year, even his individual shot attempts, and he put up more points than he was accustomed to. However he was on the ice for fewer goals for and gave up far more goals against than his usual. He played more minutes and faced a slightly tougher quality of competition but moved to playing much more sheltered zone starts. His performance wasn’t great, particularly lacking in defense, but overall he had a decent year.

 

Justin Schultz – 33.9 TOI%, 0.53 1P60, 10.2 C60, 3.12 GF60, 59.1 CF60, 2.24 GA60, 32.2 SA60

Schultz is a peculiar case in that he had below average offensive possession and gave up amongst the most shots against but when it came to scoring had the best goals for and second best goals against. In addition while his on-ice numbers were exceptional his individual points were merely above average. He faced average competition with a little below average zone starts but still with a decided O-zone tilt.

Compared to the rest of the league we see Schultz is a 2nd pairing D with easy starts against lesser competition. This may indeed play a role in why his on-ice goal figures are so impressive. His individual numbers are pretty much what we would expect from a 2nd pairing D, although there is quite a disconnect between his individual scoring and that of his teammates when he was on the ice. His possession numbers were nothing spectacular but perfectly reasonable for and 2nd pairing D.

He skated fewer minutes with less sheltered zone starts than he had over the prior three years but did face about the same level of competition. His performance improved pretty much across the board, individually he was better and shooting and scoring while on ice he saw more goals scored for his team and fewer against. The one area he went down was he gave up more shots against than he had in the past. He may have just been fortunate in playing with more efficient teammates but he appears to have had quite an impressive season.

 

Olli Maatta – 32.7 TOI%, 0.66 1P60, 13.3 C60, 2.34 GF60, 62.2 CF60, 2.43 GA60, 30.5 SA60

Maatta posted the best individual scoring and second most shot attempts but his on-ice numbers were rather unremarkable. He faced an average level of competition but had the most sheltered zone starts of any of the regular D. He was slightly below average in goals for but slightly above average goals against, conversely slightly below average Corsi for and slightly below average shots against.

Compared to the rest of the league Maatta skated sheltered minutes of a #5/6 D. His individual performance was exceptional, both possession and scoring. However his on-ice scoring was far less impressive, especially considering how sheltered his usage was. Ostensibly he played better than his linemates, but having just mediocre on-ice production is concerning considering how he was deployed.

He skated fewer minutes this year against easier competition this year with exceptionally more sheltered O-zone starts. He scored a little more often this year and produced a massive increase in shot attempts, in addition to the on-ice Corsi for increased. On the other hand the on-ice scoring was way down while he gave up more shots against and more goals against than what he is accustomed to. His individual performance suggests he had a strong season but it is still concerning that his on-ice numbers aren’t better.

 

Ian Cole – 31.5 TOI%, 0.59 1P60, 10.3 C60, 2.79 GF60, 56.7 CF60, 2.32 GA60, 28.0 SA60

Cole was traded away at the deadline so some of his numbers come from the time when he was playing for Columbus. He skated against easier competition than the regular D but had the toughest zone starts. Offensively he had the second best points and on-ice goals for on the blue line as well as being the best at preventing the opponents’ shots. His offensive possession could have been better, but his goals against were decent enough.

Compared to the rest of the league he was the standard 3rd pairing defensive D who gets the bulk of the D-zone starts but is deployed against less effective opponents. Considering his usage his numbers were rather exceptional, posting strong offense and limiting the number of chances opponents get despite spending much of his time in the D-zone. However the poor save percent is of course an area of concern but his offensive performance made up for any defensive shortcomings.

He skated fewer minutes this year but did face a slightly higher quality of competition and much tougher zone starts. His performance improved pretty much across the board, he scored more and generated more shot attempts this year, both individually and on-ice. The one area he was lacking is he gave up more goals against than he had in past seasons. Overall he was quite effective at the role he was used in, but trading him allowed them to add more offense to the Bottom 6 forwards.

 

Matt Hunwick – 31.4 TOI%, 0.48 1P60, 9.0 C60, 2.41 GF60, 56.1 CF60, 3.08 GA60, 34.0 SA60

Hunwick was one of the worst possession D on the team, the second worst both for individual shot attempts and on-ice Corsi for while nobody else gave up more shots against. He was also the second worst defensively giving up an extraordinarily amount of goals against. Offensively though he scored at an average rate, but did so playing against a lesser level of competition and with and average although slight O-zone tilt.

Compared to the rest of the league he is a fairly standard 3rd pairing D who gets deployed against lesser competition. His offensive possession isn’t great but isn’t bad for a 3rd pairing guy, while his ability to score goals was actually fairly decent for a 3rd pairing D. Unfortunately he was so ineffective defensively that it outweighed any offensive contributions he may have made.

He is skating fewer minutes against lesser competition in easier zone starts this year than he has in the recent past. Offensively he has done slightly better this year, he put up more points and the team scored more goals. But in every other regard he has been less effective this year, worse puck possession and exceptionally worse defense. He said it himself that he just hasn’t played well this year and really isn’t a good fit in the Penguins system.

 

Chad Ruhwedel – 30.9 TOI%, 0.28 1P60, 11.8 C60, 1.78 GF60, 61.6 CF60, 2.15 GA60, 29.1 SA60

Ruhwedel was used in sheltered usage with limited minutes against less talented competition with a rather hefty O-zone tilt in his starts. Unfortunately despite this he had the lowest scoring of the regular D, both individually and on-ice. His possession numbers weren’t bad, and he gave up fewer goals against than any of the regular D, but considering his sheltered usage we would expect him to not be a defensive liability.

Compared to the rest of the league he is pretty evidently a sheltered #6 D who only gets deployed in favourable situations. His possession numbers were quite good, but as we pointed out before you don’t get points for outshooting your opponent. His offensive production was pretty much nonexistent, but he did well enough defensively that it didn’t necessarily hurt the team. Although considering his usage you would want to see better.

Compared to his past performance he is skating a little more minutes this year but in much more sheltered O-zone starts. His possession numbers all improved, both individually and on-ice, offense and defense. On the other hand where it counts on the scoreboard he is much worse this year. He put up far fewer points than he is accustomed to, the team scored less when he was on the ice, and incredibly he even gave up more goals against than he normally does. Overall he is more suited to be a 7th D who plays a specific defensive role, and in that regard he wasn’t bad this year, but overall his performance wasn’t particularly good either.

 

Jamie Oleksiak – 29.6 TOI%, 0.43 1P60, 9.6 C60, 2.72 GF60, 56.2 CF60, 2.47 GA60, 29.7 SA60

Oleksiak did play part of the season in Dallas before being acquired by the Pens, so his numbers are going to be affected by the beginning of the year. Overall he skated the fewest minutes against the easiest competition of any of the regular D, although he did have tougher D-zone starts than most of the rest of the team. His Corsi for was amongst the worst on the team but otherwise his numbers were decent. He was slightly above average individually and defensively while being a little above average in on-ice goals for.

Oleksiak is the consummate #6/7 D who plays against easy opponents with a bit of a balanced zone starts. Individually he performed fairly well, his numbers weren’t excellent but they weren’t bad for a bottom of the lineup guy. His possession numbers weren’t great and defensively he let up a lot of goals considering his usage, but he did well enough offensively to make up for his defensive shortcomings.

Compared to prior seasons he played more minutes against slightly higher quality of competition with more of a D-zone tilt than he was accustomed to. Despite this his individual numbers are all up and while on the ice the team scored more goals for and allowed fewer goals against than in prior seasons. The one red mark against him is that his possession numbers are down, but he is playing well where it counts on the scoreboard.

 

Zach Trotman – 25.2 TOI%, 0.00 1P60, 12.0 C60, 0.00 GF60, 56.5 CF60, 5.14 GA60, 29.1 SA60

Trotman played just 3 games, 35.0 5-on-5 minutes, so the data is definitely skewed by the small sample size. He skated sub-3rd pairing minutes against lesser opponents with exceptionally sheltered O-zone tilt. It isn’t worth comparing him to the rest of the league due to the sample size, and even his past seasons weren’t particularly spectacular. You can’t draw any real conclusions from his limited time in Pittsburgh but overall it isn’t anything to write home about.

 

Frank Corrado – 23.5 TOI%, 0.00 1P60, 11.5 C60, 0.00 GF60, 50.1 CF60, 1.04 GA60, 18.8 SA60

Corrado only played 5 games with 57.5 5-on-5 minutes, so we also have sample size issues in his data. He played the least minutes against the easiest competition with heavily sheltered O-zone starts. The one positive we can point to is that he was effective defensively when he was on the ice despite not contributing anything offensively and having atrocious puck possession numbers. Again we don’t really have anything particularly positive to say about what little we saw of him in Pittsburgh this year.

 

Future Implications

The Penguins currently have 10 D under contract for the 2018-19 season. Their NHL corps is more or less intact, they have Letang for 4 more years, Schultz for 2, Dumoulin for 5, Maatta for 4, Hunwick for 2, and Ruhwedel for just  more. Down in the minors Jeff Taylor and Chris Summers are in the final year of their contracts, Dane Birks will be starting his pro career on a 2-year ELC, and Joseph Masonius signed a 1-year AHL deal.

There are 5 pending RFAs: Oleksiak, Andrey Pedan, Lukas Bengtsson, Corrado, and Ethan Prow. All 5 are eligible for salary arbitration, but Oleksiak is the only one who really has much leverage to use in negotiations. Of the 5 the only one who would not need to clear waivers in order to return to WBS is Bengtsson, although there is a rumour that there are a number of SHL teams who are pushing hard to get him to return to Sweden. However, he was one of the 4 D recalled to Pittsburgh to practice with their Black Aces squad so the Pens do appear to want to keep him in the system. Pedan was also recalled, and Oleksiak is playing on the 3rd pairing in the playoffs while Hunwick sits in the press box so they are other ones they may be trying to bring back.

Then there are 3 UFAs, all guys they signed over the summer to flesh out the AHL lineup: Trotman, Kevin Czuczuman, and Jarred Tinordi. Of the three of them Tinordi is the only one who was called up to Pittsburgh after WBS was eliminated from the playoffs.

There are also a number of unsigned draft picks to keep an eye on. The first and foremost would be Connor Hall, a 20-year-old 2016 3rd round pick who will become a free agent if he is not signed before June 1st. Then there is Niclas Almari, a soon to be 20-year-old 2016 6th round pick who plays in Finland but had a strong showing when he joined WBS at the end of the season. There is also 2017 2nd round pick Zach Lauzon who turns 20 this fall, making him eligible for the AHL, although he may return for a final season in the Juniors as he had a disappointing year and missed much of the season due to injury. 2017 6th round pick Antti Palojarvi is just 19 and spent last year playing in the Finnish juniors so it is unlikely he will move up before getting some experience in the adult league. The final three D are still playing in the NCAA and it is unlikely that they would be leaving school yet.

 

Their Top 4 in the NHL are set and Ruhwedel makes a good #6/7 option, but unless he has a complete turnaround next year they may need to try to move Hunwick in order to make room for somebody who is a better fit in their system. The other guys they have signed aren’t ideal NHL options so they will need to look to either re-sign one of their free agents, make a trade, or hope to find a good addition in free agency. The obvious choice would be to convince Oleksiak to re-sign for an affordable amount to continue to play on the 3rd pairing in Pittsburgh. Of course they would still want to find somebody else who may be a better fit as a full-time 3rd pairing D rather than relying on Ruhwedel who struggled even in sheltered minutes.

Of course one thing they may want to think about is finding somebody who can be used in a shutdown role, freeing up Letang so that he no longer has to handle such a heavy workload. His 5-on-5 stats, and by association his partner Dumoulin, were quite terrible this year, particularly getting burned defensively. One thing that may have influenced that is the top pairing being tied up against top opponents, and also to a lesser extent Maatta ends up having to face tougher minutes than he is accustomed to which could explain his less than ideal on-ice numbers. If they were to add a 3rd pair who could effectively play a shutdown role and take some of the burden off the Top 4 it could present more opportunities to increase their offensive output.

 

They will need to make some serious additions to the AHL lineup for next season though. Summers is a veteran who wore an A this season but Birks and Masonius will be rookies starting their pro career while Taylor spent most of the season in Wheeling. Of the four the only one who got called up to the Black Aces in Pittsburgh was Summers. There are a few guys they could be looking to re-sign, or they could add fresh faces in free agency like they did to build the D corps this summer, but as of now thing are not looking good.

I personally like Bengtsson, he has professional experience playing in Europe before signing with the Pens and he looked good in what I saw f him the past couple summers. Unfortunately he had bad luck with injury and ended up getting stuck down in the AHL so I wouldn’t be surprised if he decides to just head back home to play in Sweden. Prow was another promising free agent they picked up with Bengtsson two years ago but he hasn’t really panned out so far so they may opt to move on. I could imagine them working on trying to re-sign Pedan, although at this point in his career he may be looking for a shot at making the NHL so I’m not going to pencil him in as an AHL option.

They could look to re-sign the more experienced guys, both Trotman and Corrado got some work up in Pittsburgh this year and Tinordi joined the team at the end of their season. These are guys that have cleared waivers and were willing to sign league minimum contracts knowing they would likely end up in the minors. And Czuczuman was their top scoring D in the regular season, so he could contribute if he returns again next year. They could also look to sign a guy like Kevin Schulze who was on an ECHL deal with the Nailers but spent time up in WBS this year or guys like Dylan Zink and Kevin Spinozzi who were signed to AHL deals. The way the team has been going the past few seasons though I wouldn’t be surprised to see more rotation of new faces instead of having familiar guys returning year after year. Especially considering the disappointing opening round sweep they may look to shake things up next season.